Best and Worst NFL Teams, According to Betting Markets
They used point spread data from 2002 to 2022.
The betting markets have spoken, and sports fans are listening. The initial point spreads for the upcoming NFL season were released in May, and this week the Washington Post used some analytical magic to predict what we can expect. Using point spread data from 2002 to 2022, the news outlet calculated how many games each team is expected to win, and their odds of taking their division, hitting the playoffs, and ultimately going all the way to a Super Bowl victory. Here are the best and worst teams in the upcoming NFL season, according to their analysis.
Returning champions the Chiefs are projected to be the top team in the NFL, expected to be five points better than an average club. The Washington Post calls this "no surprise," predicting the Chiefs win 12 games and have a 47% chance of winning their division, a 67% chance of making the playoffs, and a 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
4 points better than average club
Last year's runners-up, the Bills are forecast to win 11½ games. According to the Post's number-crunchers, they have a 40% chance of winning the AFC East, a 69% chance of making the playoffs, and an 8% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
3½ points better than average club
Oddsmakers believe the Eagles will win 10 games this season. They're slated at a 39% chance of winning their division (second to the Dallas Cowboys), a 67% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
3½ points better than average club
The Bengals are predicted to win 10 games this season. Those in the know give them a 46% chance of winning their division, a 74% chance of making the playoffs, and a 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl—putting them in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers at this point in the season
3 points better than average club
The Cowboys come in at a 44% of winning their division, a 71% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
3 points worse than average club
The Titans are expected to win seven games. They're given an 18% chance of winning the AFC South (the Jaguars are given a 46% chance), a 25% chance of making the playoffs, and a less-than-optimistic 0% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
4 points worse than average club
Now deprived of the really-retired-for-good Tom Brady, who had an underwhelming final season, the Bucs are expected to win six games. They're given a 10% chance of winning their division, a 21% chance of making the playoffs, and 1% odds of winning the Super Bowl.
4 points worse than average club
The Colts are predicted to win five games. They have a 30% chance of winning their division, a 39% chance of making the playoffs, and a 1% chance of winning it all.
4½ points worse than average club
Forecast to take an anemic four-and-a-half games, the Texans are given a dismal 6% chance of winning the AFC South, 8% odds of making the playoffs, and no chance of winning the Super Bowl.
5 points worse than average club
The Cardinals are also predicted to win four-and-a-half games, with a Hail Mary 4% chance of winning their division and a 9% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances of hoisting the championship cup? Zero.
